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Sunday, February 22, 2009

Sean Kelly

2009 Oscar Predictions

This being the first year I saw all five best picture nominees BEFORE they were announced, I would think that I have a good idea where this year's Oscars are heading.

I already wrote my predictions for the major categories as part of a round-table for MONDOmagazine. You may check out the two-part article here and here. However, I will of course repeat those predictions here.

So, let's get on to them....


Best Motion Picture of the Year
Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Reason: This has definitely been a good year for Slumdog Millionaire. It has won pretty much every other prize and it will probably pick up this one too.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Richard Jenkins for The Visitor
Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn for Milk
Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler

Prediction: Mickey Rourke
Alternate: Frank Langella

Reason: Unlike the Golden Globes, where I chose Langella, I'm sticking with Rourke.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie for Changeling
Melissa Leo for Frozen River
Meryl Streep for Doubt
Kate Winslet for The Reader

Prediction: Kate Winslet
Alternate: Anne Hathaway

Reason: She's nominated for the wrong film, but I still see Kate Winslet getting the statue.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Josh Brolin for Milk
Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt
Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road

Prediction: Heath Ledger
Alternate: Michael Shannon

Reason: While it may be a sympathy win, Heath Ledger still deserves the posthumous Oscar.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Amy Adams for Doubt
Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis for Doubt
Taraji P. Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler

Prediction:
Marisa Tomei
Alternate: Penélope Cruz

Reason: This was a tough category to call, but I'm going with Tomet

Best Achievement in Directing
Nominees:
Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry for The Reader
David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant for Milk

Prediction: Danny Boyle
Alternate: David Fincher

Reason: Boyle getting this Oscar is probably in the bag.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Nominees:
Frozen River: Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky: Mike Leigh
In Bruges: Martin McDonagh
Milk: Dustin Lance Black
WALL·E: Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, Jim Reardon

Prediction: Happy-Go-Lucky
Alternate: Milk

Reasion: I'm being hopeful for this one. Hopefully, it's not just a guess.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Eric Roth, Robin Swicord
Doubt: John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon: Peter Morgan
The Reader: David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire: Simon Beaufoy

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Reason: Yeah, I smell a sweep.

Well, those are the main categories. As always, you may stop now or continue reading my educated guesses for the technical awards (though I admit the guesses are more educated these days than they were).

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Nominees:
Changeling: Tom Stern
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Claudio Miranda
The Dark Knight: Wally Pfister
The Reader: Roger Deakins, Chris Menges
Slumdog Millionaire: Anthony Dod Mantle

Prediction:
Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Dark Knight

Best Achievement in Editing
Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter
The Dark Knight: Lee Smith
Frost/Nixon: Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill
Milk: Elliot Graham
Slumdog Millionaire: Chris Dickens

Prediction:
Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: Frost/Nixon

Best Achievement in Art Direction
Nominees:
Changeling: James J. Murakami, Gary Fettis
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Donald Graham Burt, Victor J. Zolfo
The Dark Knight: Nathan Crowley, Peter Lando
The Duchess: Michael Carlin, Rebecca Alleway
Revolutionary Road: Kristi Zea, Debra Schutt

Prediction: The Duchess
Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Achievement in Costume Design
Nominees:
Australia: Catherine Martin
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Jacqueline West
The Duchess: Michael O'Connor
Milk: Danny Glicker
Revolutionary Road: Albert Wolsky

Prediction: The Duchess
Alternate: Australia

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Alexandre Desplat
Defiance: James Newton Howard
Milk: Danny Elfman
Slumdog Millionaire: A.R. Rahman
WALL·E: Thomas Newman

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate:
WALL·E

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Nominees:
Slumdog Millionaire: A.R. Rahman, Sampooran Singh Gulzar("Jai Ho")
Slumdog Millionaire: A.R. Rahman, Maya Arulpragasam("O Saya")
WALL·E: Peter Gabriel, Thomas Newman("Down to Earth")

Prediction: Jai Ho
Alternate: Down to Earth

Best Achievement in Makeup
Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Greg Cannom
The Dark Knight: John Caglione Jr., Conor O'Sullivan
Hellboy II: The Golden Army: Mike Elizalde, Thomas Floutz

My Prediction:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: The Dark Knight

Best Achievement in Sound
Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Mark Weingarten
The Dark Knight: Ed Novick, Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo
Slumdog Millionaire: Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke, Resul Pookutty
WALL·E: Tom Myers, Michael Semanick, Ben Burtt
Wanted: Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño, Petr Forejt

My Prediction: Wall
·E
Alternate: The Dark Knight

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Nominees:
The Dark Knight: Richard King
Iron Man: Frank E. Eulner, Christopher Boyes
Slumdog Millionaire: Tom Sayers
WALL·E: Ben Burtt, Matthew Wood
Wanted: Wylie Stateman

My Prediction:
WALL·E
Alternate: The Dark Knight

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton, Craig Barron
The Dark Knight: Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Timothy Webber, Paul J. Franklin
Iron Man: John Nelson, Ben Snow, Daniel Sudick, Shane Mahan

My Prediction:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: Iron Man

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Nominees:
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL·E

My Prediction: Wall
·E
Alternate: Kung Fu Panda

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Nominees:
The Baader Meinhof Complex, Germany
The Class, France
Departures, Japan
Revanche, Austria
Waltz with Bashir, Israel

My Prediction: Waltz with Bashir
Alternate: The Class

Best Documentary, Features
Nominees:
The Betrayal - Nerakhoon
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water

My Prediction: Man on Wire
Alternate: The Garden

Best Documentary, Short Subjects
Nominees:
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306

Prediction:
The Conscience of Nhem En
Alternate: Smile Pinki

Best Short Film, Animated
Nominees:
La Maison en petits cubes
Lavatory - Lovestory
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way Up

Prediction: Presto
Alternate:
La Maison en petits cubes

Best Short Film, Live Action
Nominees:
Auf der Strecke (On the Line)
Manon on the Asphalt
New Boy
The Pig
Spielzeugland (Toyland)

Prediction: The Pig
Alternate:
Manon on the Asphalt

And those are my predictions!

Sean Kelly

About Sean Kelly -

Sean Patrick Kelly is a self-described über-geek, who has been an avid film lover for all his life. He graduated from York University in 2010 with an honours B.A. in Cinema and Media Studies and he likes to believe he knows what he’s talking about when he writes about film (despite occasionally going on pointless rants).