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Sunday, February 24, 2008

Sean Kelly

2008 Oscar Predictions

It was a good year in terms of nominated films. I even managed to see four out of the five Best Picture nominations BEFORE the nominees were even announced (in comparison to last year, where I only saw two of the Best Picture nominees before the ceremony).

I have a feeling that I should have a very good year in terms of my Oscar predictions.

So, let's get on to them....


Best Motion Picture of the Year
Nominees:
Atonement
June
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will be Blood

Prediction: No Country for Old Men
Alternate: There Will be Blood

Reason: No Country for Old Men was my personal favourite film from and it has been winning Best Picture awards all over. Atonement won the Golden Globe, however I doubt that feat will be repeated tonight. If there is a that will beat No Country it would probably be There Will be Blood.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
George Clooney for Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp for Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones for In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen for Eastern Promises

Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis
Alternate: Johnny Depp

Reason: All the signs are pointing to Daniel Day-Lewis winning his second Best Actor Oscar. If not, I will say Johnny Depp will get it.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Cate Blanchett for Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie for Away from Her
Marion Cotillard for La Vie en rose
Laura Linney for The Savages
Ellen Page for Juno

Prediction: Julie Christie
Alternate: Ellen Page

Reason: Wouldn't it be neat if 21-year-old Ellen Page won the Best Actress award for her breakthrough role in Juno. However, the Oscar is more likely to go to Julie Christie, who won both the Golden Globe and SAG award.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Casey Affleck for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem for No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook for Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson for Michael Clayton

Prediction: Javier Bardem
Alternate: Hal Holbrook

Reason: Anton Chigurh is one of the most chilling film villains in recent memory and Bardem should get the Oscar. The only other performance here that's worthy of the award is Holbrook's brief role in Into the Wild.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Cate Blanchett for I'm Not There.
Ruby Dee for American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan for Atonement
Amy Ryan for Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton for Michael Clayton

Prediction: Cate Blanchett
Alternate: Saoirse Ronan

Reason: Blanchett's gender-bending role as one of the faces of Bob Dylan was without a doubt the best part of I'm Not There. However, I also have high praise for Saoirse Ronan's role in Atonement.

Best Achievement in Directing
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen for No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman for Juno
Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Prediction: Coens
Alternate: Paul Tomas Anderson

Reason: My only question here is: Will the Coens get their own statue, or will they have to share?

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Nominees:
Juno: Diablo Cody
Lars and the Real Girl: Nancy Oliver
Michael Clayton: Tony Gilroy
Ratatouille: Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco
The Savages: Tamara Jenkins

Prediction: Juno
Alternate: Michael Clayton

Reasion: Juno is definitely one smart story and the writer of that story deserves recognition.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Nominees:
Atonement: Christopher Hampton
Away from Her: Sarah Polley
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly: Ronald Harwood
No Country for Old Men: Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
There Will Be Blood: Paul Thomas Anderson

Prediction: No Country for Old Men
Alternate: There Will Be Blood

Reason: It's pretty likely the the Coen's screenplay will win here.

As always, here the part of the post, where you can either stop now or continue and read the educated guesses that make up the remainder of the categories.

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Nominees:
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford: Roger Deakins
Atonement: Seamus McGarvey
No Country for Old Men: Roger Deakins
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly: Janusz Kaminski
There Will Be Blood: Robert Elswit

Prediction: No Country for Old Men
Alternate: There Will Be Blood

Best Achievement in Editing
Nominees:
The Bourne Ultimatum: Christopher Rouse
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly: Juliette Welfling
Into the Wild: Jay Cassidy
No Country for Old Men: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
There Will Be Blood: Dylan Tichenor

Prediction: There Will Be Blood
Alternate: Into the Wild

Best Achievement in Art Direction
Nominees:
American Gangster: Arthur Max, Beth A. Rubino
Atonement: Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
The Golden Compass: Dennis Gassner, Anna Pinnock
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street: Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo
There Will Be Blood: Jack Fisk, Jim Erickson

Prediction: Sweeney Todd
Alternate: Golden Compass

Best Achievement in Costume Design
Nominees:
Across the Universe: Albert Wolsky
Atonement: Jacqueline Durran
Elizabeth: The Golden Age: Alexandra Byrne
La Vie en rose: Marit Allen
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street: Colleen Atwood

Prediction: Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Alternate: Across the Universe

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Nominees:
Atonement: Dario Marianelli
The Kite Runner: Alberto Iglesias
Michael Clayton: James Newton Howard
Ratatouille: Michael Giacchino
3:10 to Yuma: Marco Beltrami

Prediction: Atonement
Alternate: 3:10 to Yuma

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Nominees:
August Rush: Jamal Joseph, Charles Mack, Tevin Thomas("Raise It Up")
Enchanted: Alan Menken, Stephen Schwartz("Happy Working Song")
Enchanted: Alan Menken, Stephen Schwartz("So Close")
Enchanted: Alan Menken, Stephen Schwartz("That's How You Know")
Once: Glen Hansard, Markéta Irglová(“Falling Slowly” )

Prediction: Falling Slowly
Alternate: That's How You Know

Best Achievement in Makeup
Nominees:
La Vie en rose: Didier Lavergne, Jan Archibald
Norbit: Rick Baker, Kazuhiro Tsuji
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End: Ve Neill, Martin Samuel

My Prediction: Pirates of the Caribbean
Alternate: Norbit

Best Achievement in Sound
Nominees:
The Bourne Ultimatum: Scott Millan, David Parker, Kirk Francis
No Country for Old Men: Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff, Peter F. Kurland
Ratatouille: Randy Thom, Michael Semanick, Doc Kane
3:10 to Yuma: Paul Massey, David Giammarco, Jim Stuebe
Transformers: Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Peter J. Devlin

My Prediction: Transformers
Alternate: Bourne Ultimatum

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Nominees:
The Bourne Ultimatum: Karen M. Baker, Per Hallberg
No Country for Old Men: Skip Lievsay
Ratatouille: Randy Thom, Michael Silvers
There Will Be Blood: Matthew Wood
Transformers: Mike Hopkins, Ethan Van der Ryn

My Prediction: There Will Be Blood
Alternate: Transformers

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Nominees:
The Golden Compass: Michael L. Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris, Trevor Wood
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End: John Knoll, Hal T. Hickel, Charlie Gibson, John Frazier
Transformers: Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl, John Frazier

My Prediction: Transformers
Alternate: Golden Compass

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Nominees:
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf's Up

My Prediction: Persepolis
Alternate: Ratatouille

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Nominees:
The Counterfeiters (Austria)
Beaufort (Israel)
Mongol (Kazakhstan)
Katyn (Poland)
12 (Russia)

My Prediction: The Counterfeiters
Alternate: 12

Best Documentary, Features
Nominees:
No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War Dance

My Prediction: Sicko
Alternate: No End in Sight

Best Documentary, Short Subjects
Nominees:
Freeheld: Cynthia Wade, Vanessa Roth
La Corona (The Crown): Amanda Micheli, Isabel Vega
Salim Baba: Tim Sternberg, Francisco Bello
Sari's Mother: James Longley

Prediction: La Corona (The Crown)
Alternate: Sari's Mother

Best Short Film, Animated
Nominees:
Même les pigeons vont au paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)
I Met the Walrus
Madame Tutli-Putli
My Love (Moya lyubov)
Peter & the Wolf

Prediction: I Met the Walrus
Alternate: Peter and the Wolf

Best Short Film, Live Action
Nominees:
At Night
Il Supplente (The Substitute)
Le Mozart des pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)
Tanghi argentini
The Tonto Woman

Prediction: Le Mozart des pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)
Alternate: At Night

And those are my predictions!

Sean Kelly

About Sean Kelly -

Sean Patrick Kelly is a self-described über-geek, who has been an avid film lover for all his life. He graduated from York University in 2010 with an honours B.A. in Cinema and Media Studies and he likes to believe he knows what he’s talking about when he writes about film (despite occasionally going on pointless rants).