Another year, another set of Oscar predictions. This year's bunch of nominees is harder to call this year, but I will try my best.
Oh, before I make my predictions, I want to make a comment about the fact that Dreamgirls is the top nominee, but it not nominated for Best Picture. Simply put, Dreamgirls is the De Facto leader, due to the fact that three of the nominations are for one category. Category-wise Babel is the true leader.
Now onto the predictions….
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Nominees:
Babel
The Departed
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Prediction: The Departed
Alternates: Babel, Little Miss Sunshine
Reason: This year has probably been the hardest year for me to draw the line between “want to win” and “will win.” That's why there's two alternate picks. I was surprised to here that Little Miss Sunshine is actually a top candidate to win, however I probably won't be able to see the film until sometime after the Oscars. Between The Departed and Babel, I believe that The Departed was the better film, so that's my pick to win Best Picture.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Leonardo DiCaprio for Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson
Peter O'Tool for Venus
Will Smith for The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker for The Last King of Scotland
Prediction: Forest Whitaker
Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio
Reason: I say the Whitaker is all but a shoe-in to win here. If not, I would say DiCaprio.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Penelope Cruz – Volver
Judi Dench – Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren – The Queen
Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet – Little Children
Prediction: Helen Mirren
Alternate: Meryl Streep
Reason: Once again, this award is all but a shoe-in for Mirren.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Alan Arkin – Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley – Little Children
Djimon Hounsou – Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy – Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg – The Departed
Prediction: Eddie Murphy
Alternate: Alan Arkin
Reason: I heard that the Academy would be turned off on Murphy with the release of Norbit. That would be a shame, because he really deserve the reward for his performance.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Adriana Barraza – Babel
Cate Blanchett – Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin – Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson – Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi – Babel
Prediction: Jennifer Hudson
Alternate: Rinko Kikuchi
Reason: Unlike Murphy, I don't think there is any backlash against Jennifer Hudson, who is almost sure to walk away with the Oscar.
Best Achievement in Directing
Nominees:
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Babel
Martin Scorsese – The Departed
Clint Eastwood – Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears – The Queen
Paul Greengrass – United 93
Prediction: Martin Scorsese
Alternate: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Reason: Raging Bull, The Last Temptation of Christ, Goodfellas, Gangs of New York, and The Aviator. Those the the past films Scorsese has been nominated for, but didn't win. However, the signs are showing that this will be his year!
Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Nominees:
Babel
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
Prediction: Little Miss Sunshine
Alternate: Babel
Reasion: Based on what I've heard, Little Miss Sunshine will be the choice for this category. If not, I would say Babel shall get it.
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Nominees:
Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Children of Men
The Departed
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal
Prediction: The Departed
Alternate: Children of Men
Reason: Once against, the consensus seems to be that The Departed will win here.
And those are the top categories. You can stop reading now, or continue with the other categories. Since I'm now a film student, I have a better understanding what the technical categories mean, but still you should consider most of these educated guesses.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Nominees:
The Black Dahlia
Children of Men
The Illusionist
Pan's Labyrinth
The Prestige
Prediction: Children of Men
Alternate: Pan's Labyrinth
Best Achievement in Editing
Nominees:
Babel
Blood Diamond
Children of Men
The Departed
United 93
Prediction: Babel
Alternate: The Departed
Best Achievement in Art Direction
Nominees:
Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
The Prestige
Prediction: Dreamgirls
Alternate: Pirates of the Caribbean
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Nominees:
Curse of the Golden Flower
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
The Queen
Prediction: Dreamgirls
Alternate: Marie Antoinette
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Nominees:
Babel
The Good German
Notes on a Scandal
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
Prediction: Babel
Alternate: Pan's Labyrinth
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Nominees:
“I Need to Wake Up” – An Inconvenient Truth
“Listen” – Dreamgirls
“Love You I Do” – Dreamgirls
“Our Town” – Cars
“Patience” – Dreamgirls
Prediction: Listen
Alternate: I Need to Wake Up
Best Achievement in Makeup
Nominees:
Apocalypto
Click
Pan's Labyrinth
My Prediction: Pan's Labyrinth
Alternate: Apocalypto
Best Achievement in Sound
Nominees:
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
My Prediction: Pirates of the Caribbean
Alternate: Apocalypto
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Nominees:
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Flags of Our Fathers
Letters from Iwo Jima
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
My Prediction: Letters from Iwo Jima
Alternate: Pirates of the Caribbean
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Nominees:
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Poseidon
Superman Returns
My Prediction: Pirates of the Caribbean
Alternate: Superman Returns
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Nominees:
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House
My Prediction: Cars
Alternate: Monster House
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Nominees:
After the Wedding (Denmark)
Days of Glory (Indigenes) (Algeria)
The Lives of Others (Germany)
Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico)
Water (Canada)
My Prediction: Pan's Labyrinth
Alternate: Water
Best Documentary, Features
Nominees:
Deliver Us from Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq in Fragments
Jesus Camp
My Country, My Country
My Prediction: An Inconvenient Truth
Alternate: Jesus Camp
Best Documentary, Short Subjects
Nominees:
The Blood of Yingzhou District
Recycled Life
Rehearsing a Dream
Two Hands
Prediction: The Blood of Yingzhou District
Alternate: Rehearsing a Dream
Best Short Film, Animated
Nominees:
The Danish Poet
Lifted
The Little Matchgirl
Maestro
No Time for Nuts
Prediction: Lifted
Alternate: The Danish Poet
Best Short Film, Live Action
Nominees:
Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)
Eramos Pocos (One Too Many)
Helmer & Son
The Saviour
West Bank Story
Prediction: West Bank Story
Alternate: The Saviour
And those are my predictions!
