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Friday, March 03, 2006

Sean Kelly

2006 Oscar Predictions

‘Tis that time again. I shall now pick who I think will win doing the Oscars this upcoming Sunday. As you may know, it’s a more “indie” group in the nominees this year, which should make for an interesting night for movie buffs and a boring one for the mainstream fans (you can’t please anyone).

As always, it’s a long list, so I better get started.


Best Motion Picture of the Year
Nominees:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich

Prediction: Brokeback Mountain
Alternate: Crash

Reason: Brokeback Mountain has been winning EVERYTHING this year. The only think that can stop this movie from winning are the rumours floating around that there are conservative academy members that wouldn’t even SEE this movie, let alone vote for it. Personally, I liked Crash better, and I think that will be the movie that wins if Brokeback doesn’t.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote
Terrence Howard for Hustle and Flow
Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix for Walk the Line
David Strathairn for Good Night, and Good Luck

Prediction: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Alternate: Heath Ledger

Reason: I just saw Capote this past Monday and it confirmed to me that Hoffman is the best of this bunch. If not, I think Ledger will get the nod.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Judi Dench for Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman for Transamerica
Keira Knightley for Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron for North Country
Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line

Prediction: Reese Witherspoon
Alternate: Felicity Huffman

Reason: The buzz for this award is pointing to Witherspoon for the win. However, I think that Huffman’s role as a transsexual is more deserving of the award. If some act of God causes Witherspoon NOT to win, I think Huffman will get the honour.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
George Clooney for Syriana
Matt Dillon for Crash
Paul Giamatti for Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal for Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt for A History of Violence

Prediction: George Clooney
Alternate: Paul Giamatti

Reason: In a perfect world, Paul Giamatti would finally get his due for is excellent performance in, the underappreciated, Cinderella Man. However, George Clooney has been cleaning up this awards season, and he will probably get the Oscar as well.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Amy Adams for Junebug
Catherine Keener for Capote
Frances McDormand for North Country
Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain

Prediction: Rachel Weisz
Alternate: Michelle Williams

Reason: Weisz won this award during the Golden Globes and I think it’s a safe bet that she will win it again here. If not, I say that Williams should get it.

Best Achievement in Directing
Nominees:
George Clooney for Good Night, and Good Luck.
Paul Haggis for Crash
Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller for Capote
Steven Spielberg for Munich

Prediction: Ang Lee
Alternate: Paul Haggis

Reason: There isn’t a safer pick in this group.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Nominees:
Crash - Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco
Good Night, and Good Luck. - George Clooney, Grant Heslov
Match Point - Woody Allen
The Squid and the Whale - Noah Baumbach
Syriana - Stephen Gaghan

Prediction: Crash
Alternate: Good Night, and Good Luck

Reasion: I only think there are two films in the screenwriting categories that can win – and they’re in separate categories.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Nominees:
Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana
Capote - Dan Futterman
The Constant Gardener - Jeffrey Caine
A History of Violence - Josh Olson
Munich - Tony Kushner, Eric Roth

Prediction: Brokeback Mountain
Alternate: The Constant Gardener

Reason: See last comment

Well, that's the major categories. You can stop reading now, or continue with the other categories. Since these are mostly just educated guesses (and to save time), I am going to stop giving reasons for my prediction.

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Nominees:
Batman Begins - Wally Pfister
Brokeback Mountain - Rodrigo Prieto
Good Night, and Good Luck. - Robert Elswit
Memoirs of a Geisha - Dion Beebe
The New World - Emmanuel Lubezki

Prediction: Brokeback Mountain
Alternate: The New World

Best Achievement in Editing
Nominees:
Cinderella Man - Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill
The Constant Gardener - Claire Simpson
Crash - Hughes Winborne
Munich - Michael Kahn
Walk the Line - Michael McCusker

Prediction: Crash
Alternate: Cinderella Man

Best Achievement in Art Direction
Nominees:
Good Night, and Good Luck. - James D. Bissell, Jan Pascale
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - Stuart Craig, Stephanie McMillan
King Kong - Grant Major, Dan Hennah, Simon Bright
Memoirs of a Geisha - John Myhre, Gretchen Rau
Pride & Prejudice - Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer

Prediction: Memoirs of a Geisha
Alternate: Pride & Prejudice

Best Achievement in Costume Design
Nominees:
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - Gabriella Pescucci
Memoirs of a Geisha - Colleen Atwood
Mrs. Henderson Presents - Sandy Powell
Pride & Prejudice - Jacqueline Durran
Walk the Line - Arianne Phillips

Prediction: Memoirs of a Geisha
Alternate: Pride & Prejudice

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Nominees:
Brokeback Mountain - Gustavo Santaolalla
The Constant Gardener - Alberto Iglesias
Memoirs of a Geisha - John Williams
Munich - John Williams
Pride & Prejudice - Dario Marianelli

Prediction: Brokeback Mountain
Alternate: Munich

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Nominees:
Hustle & Flow - Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman, Paul Beauregard ("It's Hard Out Here For a Pimp")
Crash - Michael Becker, Kathleen York ("In the Deep")
Transamerica - Dolly Parton ("Travelin' Thru")

Prediction: In the Deep
Alternate: Travelin’ Thru

Best Achievement in Makeup
Nominees:
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe - Howard Berger, Tami Lane
Cinderella Man - David LeRoy Anderson, Lance Anderson
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith - Dave Elsey, Annette Miles

My Prediction: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Alternate: Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

Best Achievement in Sound
Nominees:
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe - Terry Porter, Dean A. Zupancic, Tony Johnson
King Kong - Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges, Hammond Peek
Memoirs of a Geisha - Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Rick Kline, John Pritchett
Walk the Line - Paul Massey, Doug Hemphill, Peter F. Kurland
War of the Worlds - Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer, Ron Judkins

My Prediction: War of the Worlds
Alternate: King Kong

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Nominees:
King Kong - Mike Hopkins, Ethan Van der Ryn
Memoirs of a Geisha - Wylie Stateman
War of the Worlds - Richard King

My Prediction: War of the Worlds
Alternate: King Kong

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Nominees:
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe - Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney, Scott Farrar
King Kong - Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers, Richard Taylor
War of the Worlds - Pablo Helman, Dennis Muren, Randy Dutra, Daniel Sudick

My Prediction: King Kong
Alternate: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Nominees:
Corpse Bride - Tim Burton, Mike Johnson
Howl's Moving Castle - Hayao Miyazaki
Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit - Steve Box, Nick Park

My Prediction: Wallace & Gromit
Alternate: Corpse Bride

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Nominees:
Don't Tell - Cristina Comencini (Italy)
Joyeux Noël - Christian Carion (France)
Paradise Now - Hany Abu-Assad (Palestine)
Sophie Scholl - Die letzten Tage - Marc Rothemund (Germany)
Tsotsi - Gavin Hood (South Africa)

My Prediction: Paradise Now
Alternate: Tsotsi

Best Documentary, Features
Nominees:
Darwin's Nightmare - Hubert Sauper
Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room - Alex Gibney, Jason Kliot
March of the Penguins - Luc Jacquet, Yves Darondeau
Murderball - Henry Alex Rubin, Dana Adam Shapiro
Street Fight - Marshall Curry

My Prediction: March of the Penguins
Alternate: Murderball

Best Documentary, Short Subjects
Nominees:
God Sleeps in Rwanda - Kimberlee Acquaro, Stacy Sherman
A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin - Corinne Marrinan, Eric Simonson
The Life of Kevin Carter - Dan Krauss
The Mushroom Club - Steven Okazaki

Prediction: A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin
Alternate: The Mushroom Club

Best Short Film, Animated
Nominees:
Badgered - Sharon Colman
The Moon and the Son - John Canemaker, Peggy Stern
The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello - Anthony Lucas
9 - Shane Acker
One Man Band - Mark Andrews, Andrew Jimenez

Prediction: 9
Alternate: The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello

Best Short Film, Live Action
Nominees:
Ausreißer (The Runaway)- Ulrike Grote
Cashback - Sean Ellis, Lene Bausager
The Last Farm - Rúnar Rúnarsson, Þórir Snær Sigurjónsson
Our Time Is Up - Rob Pearlstein, Pia Clemente
Six Shooter - Martin McDonagh

Prediction: The Last Farm
Alternate: Six Shooter

And that's my Oscar Predictions! You will see my final thoughts on Monday!

Sean Kelly

About Sean Kelly -

Sean Patrick Kelly is a self-described über-geek, who has been an avid film lover for all his life. He graduated from York University in 2010 with an honours B.A. in Cinema and Media Studies and he likes to believe he knows what he’s talking about when he writes about film (despite occasionally going on pointless rants).