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Sunday, February 20, 2005

Sean Kelly

2005 Oscar Predictions

Well, here it is. I'm finally going to attempt to predict the winners of 77th Annual Academy Awards, which will be presented one week from today. In the 5 or so years I have been making predictions for myself, this is the hardest bunch of nominees to predict.

To help me, I've collected the winners of the various award shows leading up to the Oscars. This, of course, includes the Golden Globes. Other award shows include the Producers Guild awards, the Directors Guild awards, the Screen Actors Guild Awards, & The BAFTAS.

Basically, I am looking for common winners, which will help me choose, who has the best chance of winning the big one next week.

I have a lot of awards to pick, so I better get started.



Best Motion Picture of the Year
Nominees:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways

Prediction: The Aviator
Alternate: Million Dollar Baby
Reason: The Aviator has been winning awards left, right, and centre. Based on the awards it has won, at both the Golden Globes and Producers Guild Awards, The Aviator has a 70% chance of winning. The only other movie I see having a chance of winning is, the much more emotional, Million Dollar Baby.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Don Cheadle for Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp for Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio for The Aviator
Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby
Jamie Foxx for Ray

Prediction: Jamie Foxx
Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio
Reason: This will be Jamie Foxx's year. He has already won at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and BAFTAs. There is no doubt that he will be walking away with one of those little statues. If he doesn't, Leo will.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Annette Bening for Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Moreno for Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton for Vera Drake
Hilary Swank for Million Dollar Baby
Kate Winslet for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Prediction: Hilary Swank
Alternate: Annette Bening
Reason: Like Jamie Foxx, Hilary Swank has already won at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards. Imelda Staunton won the award at the BAFTAs, however Hilary Swank wasn't even one of the nominees. The only other person capable of winning (though her chance are getting thinner by the day) is Annette Bening.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Alan Alda for The Aviator
Thomas Haden Church for Sideways
Jamie Foxx for Collateral
Morgan Freeman for Million Dollar Baby
Clive Owen for Closer

Prediction: Clive Owen
Alternate: Morgan Freeman
Reason: Clive Owen won at the Golden Globes, and Morgan Freeman won at the SAG Awards. Since the SAG winner has only went on to win at the Oscars 5 out of the last 10 times, it would safe to say that Clive Owen, who also won at the BAFTAs, has the better chance to win. Jamie Foxx would have been a good pick a well, if he wasn't a shoe-in to win best actor.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Cate Blanchett for The Aviator
Laura Linney for Kinsey
Virginia Madsen for Sideways
Sophie Okonedo for Hotel Rwanda
Natalie Portman for Closer

Prediction: Natalie Portman
Alternate: Cate Blanchett
Reason: This is the hardest of the acting awards to pick. Natalie Portman walked away with the Golden Globe, while Cate Blanchett won both at the BAFTAs and SAG Awards. Either of these people could walk away with the award. However, since I have to may make a pick, I will pick Portman.

Best Achievement in Directing
Nominees:
Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby
Taylor Hackford for Ray
Mike Leigh for Vera Drake
Alexander Payne for Sideways
Martin Scorsese for The Aviator

Prediction: Clint Eastwood
Alternate: Martin Scorsese
Reason: Oh, this is probably the hardest award of the who Oscars to pick. Every and their mom (me included), would love to see Scorsese finally awarded for his many years of directing excellence. However, the odds are greatly against him. Clint Eastwood won at the Golden Globes and the Directors Guild Awards. The Directors Guild winner has won 7 out of the last 10 times. Scorsese will, hopefully, win someday, but probably not this year.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Nominees:
The Aviator - John Logan
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gondry, Pierre Bismuth
Hotel Rwanda - Terry George, Keir Pearson
The Incredibles - Brad Bird
Vera Drake - Mike Leigh

Prediction: The Aviator
Alternate: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Reasion: While I would love to see Charlie Kaufman win an Oscar, I think The Aviator has a better chance of winning here.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Nominees:
Before Sunset - Richard Linklater, Kim Krizan, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
Finding Neverland - David Magee
Million Dollar Baby - Paul Haggis
The Motorcycle Diaries - Jose Rivera
Sideways - Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor

Prediction: Sideways
Alternate: Million Dollar Baby
Reason: Sideways won at the Golden Globes, so there's a good chance it will win here too.


Well, that's the major categories. You can stop reading now, or continue with the other categories (which are more or less guesses than anything else).

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Nominees:
The Aviator - Robert Richardson
House of Flying Daggers - Xiaoding Zhao
The Passion of the Christ - Caleb Deschanel
The Phantom of the Opera - John Mathieson
A Very Long Engagement - Bruno Delbonnel

Prediction: The Aviator
Alternate: The Passion of the Christ
Reason: I'll pick this movie just for the Airplane scenes.

Best Achievement in Editing
Nominees:
The Aviator - Thelma Schoonmaker
Collateral - Jim Miller, Paul Rubell
Finding Neverland - Matt Chesse
Million Dollar Baby - Joel Cox
Ray - Paul Hirsch

Prediction: The Aviator
Alternate: Million Dollar Baby
Reason: I don't pretend to know how this award is presented. Just, when in doubt, select the frontrunner.

Best Achievement in Art Direction
Nominees:
The Aviator - Dante Ferretti, Francesca LoSchiavo
Finding Neverland - Gemma Jackson, Trisha Edwards
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - Rick Heinrichs, Cheryl Carasik
The Phantom of the Opera - Anthony Pratt, Celia Bobak
A Very Long Engagement - Aline Bonetto

Prediction: The Aviator
Alternate: Phantom of the Opera
Reason: I believe Art Direction means the design of the sets. The Aviator had a good design.

Best Achievement in Costume Design
Nominees:
The Aviator - Sandy Powell
Finding Neverland - Alexandra Byrne
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - Colleen Atwood
Ray - Sharen Davis
Troy - Bob Ringwood

Prediction: The Aviator
Alternate: Troy
Reason: I had a very good luck last year with my frontrunner picking.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Nominees:
Finding Neverland - Jan A.P. Kaczmarek
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - John Williams
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - Thomas Newman
The Passion of the Christ - John Debney
The Village - James Newton Howard

Prediction: The Passion of the Christ
Alternate: The Village
Reason: Finally, something I can talk about. The Golden Globe winner, Howard Shore for the Aviator, was apparently not eligible. As such, I shall pick The Passion, which had a pretty good score.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Nominees:
The Chorus - Bruno Coulais, Christophe Barratier ("Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)")
The Motorcycle Diaries - Jorge Drexler ("Al Otro Lado Del Río")
The Phantom of the Opera - Andrew Lloyd Webber, Charles Hart ("Learn To Be Lonely")
The Polar Express - Glen Ballard, Alan Silvestri ("Believe")
Shrek 2 - David Bryson, Adam Duritz, David Immerglück, Matthew Malley, Dan Vickrey, Charles Gillingham, Jim Bogios ("Accidentally In Love")

Prediction: Learn to Be Lonely
Alternate: Accidentally In Love
Reason: This was my pick for the Golden Globes, and I'm sticking to it.

Best Achievement in Makeup
Nominees:
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - Valli O'Reilly, Bill Corso
The Passion of the Christ - Keith VanderLaan, Christien Tinsley
The Sea Inside - Jo Allen, Manolo García

My Prediction: The Passion of the Christ
Alternate: A Series of Unfortunate Events
Reason: The violence in The Passion was realistic enough to disturb people wasn't it?

Best Achievement in Sound
Nominees:
The Aviator - Tom Fleischman, Petur Hliddal
The Incredibles - Randy Thom, Gary Rizzo, Doc Kane
The Polar Express - William B. Kaplan, Randy Thom, Tom Johnson, Dennis S. Sands
Ray - Greg Orloff, Bob Beemer, Steve Cantamessa
Spider-Man 2 - Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Jeffrey J. Haboush, Joseph Geisinger

My Prediction: The Aviator
Alternate: The Incredibles
Reason: This is a pure guess.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Nominees:
The Incredibles - Michael Silvers, Randy Thom
The Polar Express - Randy Thom, Dennis Leonard
Spider-Man 2 - Paul N.J. Ottosson

My Prediction: The Incredibles
Alternate: The Polar Express
Reason: I never got the what sound editing meant.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Nominees:
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - Tim Burke, Roger Guyett, Bill George, John Richardson
I, Robot - John Nelson, Andy Jones, Erik Nash, Joe Letteri
Spider-Man 2 - John Dykstra, Scott Stokdyk, Anthony LaMolinara, John Frazier

My Prediction: I, Robot
Alternate: Spider-Man 2

Reason: Yeah, "I, Robot" had the best special effects of the three.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Nominees:
The Incredibles - Brad Bird
Shark Tale - Bill Damaschke
Shrek 2 - Andrew Adamson

My Prediction: The Incredibles
Alternate: Shrek 2
Reason: Yeah, Shrek 2 may be the fan favourite, but when I saw The Incredibles, I forgot I was watching an animated film. That should be good enough to win an award.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Nominees:
The Chorus - Christophe Barratier (France)
Downfall - Oliver Hirschbiegel (Germany)
The Sea Inside - Alejandro Amenábar (Spain)
As in Heaven - Kay Pollak (Sweden)
Yesterday - Darrell Roodt (South Africa)

My Prediction: The Sea Inside
Alternate: The Chorus
Reason: The Sea Inside already has the Golden Globe under it's belt, so it's a safe bet to say that it will win the Oscar.

Best Documentary, Features
Nominees:
Born Into Brothels: Calcutta's Red Light Kids - Zana Briski, Ross Kauffman
The Story of the Weeping Camel - Luigi Falorni, Byambasuren Davaa
Super Size Me - Morgan Spurlock
Tupac: Resurrection - Karolyn Ali, Lauren Lazin
Twist of Faith - Eddie Schmidt, Kirby Dick

My Prediction: Super Size Me
Alternate: Tupac: Resurrection
Reason: Super Size Me was one of the two most talked about documentaries of last year (you know the other one). So, it's pretty much a shoe-in to win. Also, I don't really expect Tupac: Resurrection to have a chance of winning. It's just the only other nominee I recognize.

Best Documentary, Short Subjects
Nominees:
Autism Is a World - Gerardine Wurzburg
The Children of Leningradsky - Polak, Hanna, Celinski, Andrzej
Hardwood - Erin Faith Young, Davis, Hubert
Mighty Times: The Children's March - Robert Hudson, Robert Houston
Sister Rose's Passion - Oren Jacoby, Steve Kalafer

Prediction: The Children of Leningradsky
Alternate: Sister Rose's Passion
Reason: I used the IMDB ratings to pick these.

Best Short Film, Animated
Nominees:
Birthday Boy - Sejong Park, Andrew Gregory
Gopher Broke - Jeff Fowler, Tim Miller
Guard Dog - Bill Plympton
Lorenzo - Mike Gabriel, Baker Bloodworth
Ryan - Chris Landreth

Prediction: Gopher Broke
Alternate: Ryan
Reason: See last category.

Best Short Film, Live Action
Nominees:
Everything in This Country Must - Gary McKendry
Little Terrorist - Ashvin Kumar
7:35 de la mañana - Nacho Vigalondo
Two Cars, One Night - Taika Cohen, Ainsley Gardiner
Wasp - Andrea Arnold

Prediction: Two Cars, One Night
Alternate: Wasp
Reason: See last two categories.

And that's my Oscar Predictions! I'll post my thoughts on the (major) winners the day after the awards.

Sean Kelly

About Sean Kelly -

Sean Patrick Kelly is a self-described ├╝ber-geek, who has been an avid film lover for all his life. He graduated from York University in 2010 with an honours B.A. in Cinema and Media Studies and he likes to believe he knows what he’s talking about when he writes about film (despite occasionally going on pointless rants).